February 22, 2024

TF Securities International analyst Ming-Chi Kuo suggests that the shipments of the iPhone 15 series and iPhone 16 series may experience a notable decline due to several structural challenges faced by the company.

Apple is currently grappling with the emergence of two new paradigms in flagship smartphone design, alongside a diminishing demand for its smartphones in China. It is anticipated that Apple will introduce its alleged iPhone 16 lineup, serving as the successors to the iPhone 15 series, during the latter half of 2024.

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According to Kuo’s Medium post, the most recent supply chain survey reveals that Apple has reduced its shipments of crucial upstream semiconductor components to approximately 200 million units, marking a 15 percent decline compared to the previous year.

The analyst predicts that the iPhone 15 series will experience a 10 percent YoY decrease in shipments during the first half of 2024, while the iPhone 16 series is expected to see a decline of up to 15 percent YoY in the second half of 2024.

Kuo suggests that the decline in Apple’s iPhone 15 and iPhone 16 shipments can be attributed to several structural changes. These changes encompass the rising preference for foldable phones and the incorporation of generative AI (GenAI) capabilities in premium smartphones. Additionally, Apple is reportedly experiencing a decrease in demand within the Chinese market.

It is important to highlight that Canalys’ latest data indicates that Huawei has regained its position among the top 4 brands in China during Q4 2023.

However, Apple experienced a 6 percent year-on-year increase in shipments, delivering 17.5 million units and securing the highest market share in China for the same quarter, as reported by Canalys. Conversely, an IDC report revealed a 2 percent decline in iPhone shipments in China during Q4 2023.

According to an analyst, Apple has revised its shipment forecast for the iPhone 15 in the first half of 2024, lowering it. On the other hand, Samsung has increased its shipment forecast by 5 to 10 percent, attributing it to the GenAI capabilities of their handset.

Samsung has introduced new ‘Galaxy AI’ features in the Galaxy S24 series, while Apple is expected to incorporate some AI features in its upcoming iOS 18 update, scheduled to be released later this year.

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